I've got to say, even though there's been plenty of back and forth dissing between Cal and Oregon fans--sometimes hurting others' feelings (guilty as charged)--it just shows there's so much enthusiasm for tomorrow's game. It really feels like the official arrival of the 2007 season, at least from Cal's perspective. I feel odd saying that in light of the win over Tennessee to open the year, but let's be honest with ourselves: when the year began, most of us thought if Cal handled the Vols then the team stood a great chance of going in undefeated to face USC on November 10. There is still a great chance for that to happen, but the Oregon roadblock is more significant than many of us thought. I know Ducks fans knew it all along, but either way--this game has huge implications and I hope it lives up to all of the hype (or at least all of the hype talked about here and other blogs).
Before breaking down the game, there is some pivotal injury news for the Bears:
-Zack Follett is out. Senior Justin Moye would normally be the one to fill the void, but he's dinged up himself. That leaves RS freshman Mike Mohamed to start, with Moye still likely seeing some time.
-Will Ta'ufo'ou is out. Cal's starting fullback as a torn PCL, an injury that apparently sounds way more serious than it really is but one that will still force him out of the game. Redshirt sophomore Brian Holley, who was slated to start for Ta'ufo'ou against Tennessee before the normal starter rushed back from a strained MCL, will probably see most of the snaps.
-Tom Schneider is still out. Do I hear a redshirt year?
-Matt Malele is back. Rulon Davis isn't. The line got good news with the announcement of Malele's return, but guys like Tyson Alualu and Tad Smith will continue to have to pick up the slack in Davis's absence.
Now that the business is out of the way, let's break down the game--as objectively as possible, of course:
When Cal has the ball... Justin Forsett has carried this team through the first four games and I'm sure Tedford will be looking to establish the run early to take some pressure off Nate Longshore and keep Oregon's offense off the field. I don't anticipate the running game losing too much momentum without Ta'ufo'ou, but it is a road game and Holley isn't exactly a grizzled veteran. But Oregon's D is surrendering an average of 165 yards on the ground this year and has already let its opposition rush for six scores. If Cal is able to eclipse its team rushing average of 219.5 yards, I think it will bode well for the game's result...
But if the Bears cannot run the ball, it could be a long day for Longshore. Much has been made of the junior's inability to perform in big games, and as much as Cal fans pull for him, it's true. He is still young enough and talented enough to buck that trend, but if the ground game isn't established I think it's going to be very difficult for him to do that.
If the Bears are able to move the ball effectively through the air, I think Robert Jordan has got to do more. He has 12 catches through the first four games, registering only 113 yards. If DeSean Jackson's thumb is as cumbersome for him as it's made out to be, then Jordan has got to do a better job of getting open and taking emphasis away from Lavelle Hawkins. I also think Tedford will try to get his tight ends more involved in this game, simply from the idea that shorter passes over the middle can gain small chunks of yards and also help control the ball and keep Oregon's offense off the field.
Another reason why the Bears will likely do everything they can to establish the run is the strength of Oregon's secondary. Walter Thurmond and Jairus Byrd are only sophomores, but they are good: Thurmond has already broken up eight passes this season and Byrd has a pair of picks. And with the experience of Patrick Chung and Matthew Harper at safety, I don't think Bellotti will have a problem with devising blitz packages in passing situations that leave some single-coverage scenarios. That's when a guy like Robert Jordan really has to come to the fore.
Cal also needs to pay close attention to Oregon's defensive ends, Nick Reed and David Faaeteete (any relation to former Bears recruit Sekuli Faaeteete?). The duo has already combined for 11 tackles behind the line of scrimmage this year.
Overall, I think Oregon's defense is quite similar to Cal's: definitely talented, but definitely not talented enough to completely shut down the Bears offense (the same can be said when we move on to Oregon's offense). If Cal's offense lets the crowd noise become a problem, it will just make it easier for Oregon's defense. But while I expect it to be loud, I think Longshore has evolved enough to keep his unit under control and not let the Ducks take over. Edge: Cal.
When Oregon has the ball... Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart have comprised the most potent offensive duo west of the Mississippi in 2007 (Pat White and Steve Slaton are still more potent on the national radar). Cal fans have to be realistic and not expect a 2006 repeat: Stewart will not be held to 25 rushing yards this time around, and Dixon will not be as ineffective as he was last year (he still had over 300 all-purpose yards but was picked off three times and didn't keep the Ducks in the game early). The question will be whether or not the Bears can limit that duo in the big play department. Dixon had an 80-yard scoring run against Houston, scoring tosses of 46, 61, and 85 yards against Michigan, and two more long TD passes against the 'Furd, while Stewart had an 88-yard scoring scamper against Fresno State. These guys can light up the scoreboard no matter what their field position, and it will be imperative for the Cal defense to rely on the most important fundamental: TACKLING. If players start missing tackles, the scoreboard could look like a spinning slot machine.
It's also worth noting Oregon's backup running backs, Jeremiah Johnson and Andre Crenshaw, ain't pushovers either. They've combined for 397 rushing yards and four touchdowns (by themselves, Stewart and Dixon already have four TDs apiece, too. That's 12 total through four games, for those keeping score).
Oregon suffered a serious blow in the form of a season-ending injury to receiver Brian Paysinger. But their receiving corps is still strong. Jaison Williams and Cameron Colvin are both huge (listed at 6-foot-5, 240 lbs., and 6-foot-3, 210 lbs., respectively) and able to break long runs. They will almost certainly provide the Cal secondary's toughest test of the year, and again, the key for the Bears defenders will be to keep the action in front of them.
At this point, I truly believe Cal's defense has been better than expected. Syd'Quan Thompson has not been perfect, but he's been more than acceptable, while the likes of Thomas DeCoud and Worrell Williams have stepped up and have gained a stronger presence on the field. They've allowed their share of yards, but, not to sound too much like a broken record, they've achieved one of their most important goals that holds a striking resemblance to Oregon--turnovers. The Bears have 11 takeaways, and the Ducks have 12. If the Bears can't jar the ball from the Ducks, then I don't think there's anything stopping Oregon from putting up at least 400 yards of offense and a few points on the board. There's just too much talent (just like Cal's offense... again, sound familiar?).
Honestly, I think it's going to take amazing efforts from guys like Williams, Alualu and Marcus Ezeff--guys who have improved tremendously this season but who are still very inexperienced--to actually keep the Ducks in check. I'm not saying the game's necessarily going to be a shootout, but I think you've got to expect Oregon to come out gunning against a solid but slightly overmatched Cal defense. Edge: Oregon.
Special Teams
Placekicking. If this is a close game, both squads' placekickers could face their share of pressure attempts. Jordan Kay, a rookie, has been amazing thus far; even though he missed a chip shot against Arizona he has not missed an extra point yet and has played about as well as one could ask for in the absence of Tom Schneider, who is an above average kicker. The Ducks have two kickers, Matt Evensen and Daniel Padilla, who have combined to make 6-of-9 attempts this season. They have also been perfect on points after TDs. Let's call this a wash.
Punting. Oregon and Cal have two of the best punters in the Pac-10. The Ducks' Josh Syria leads the conference in net punting average, while Andrew Larson ranks third. Both teams have been incredibly stingy in punt returns this season--the Ducks have allowed only 40 yards on 6 returns (long is 11), while the Bears have been even more impressive, holding opponents to just 19 yards on 8 returns (long is 10). We all know about the DeSean Jackson factor, but the Bears would be wise to pay similar attention to Oregon's Andiel Brown, who reeled off a key 64-yard return against the Card last weekend. Nevertheless, even though Tha1 has been fairly quiet since Tennessee, his presence still gives Cal an edge.
Kickoffs. Again, these two teams are right at the top of the Pac-10: Oregon is first with a 29.2 yard average, while Cal is second at 28.5. As if dealing with Jonathan Stewart on offense wasn't tough enough, the Bears will also have to account for him on kickoff returns. Kick coverage has been Cal's Achilles' heel in 2007, as the Bears rank second-to-last in the conference in that department. Oregon is not much better, ranking sixth. Ducks fans will be quick to point out Stewart's presence, but let's not forget Lavelle Hawkins has already run one back this season. And maybe Jahvid Best could get involved... we'll see. But give Oregon the edge in kickoff coverage, just so my next point adds up for the special teams tale of the tape: Cal 1 1/2, Oregon 1 1/2. Edge: Even.
OVERALL, I really think this game is going to be a war. Lots of exciting 3rd and short plays. Keen awareness of field position while on special teams. Hard tackles. Plenty of trash talking.
The Ducks are home, meaning they have an advantage. But come on, Tedford has been coaching the Bears for over five years now and he knows the pitfalls of Autzen better than any Pac-10 coach whose last name isn't Bellotti. At the very least, he has gotten his guys ready to deal with crowd noise and devised playcalling schemes to counteract that noise. Sure, there might be one or two false start calls early, but with a team this talented I don't see the Autzen advantage being the decisive factor in this game.
Because I think the game will be so close (the history of the rivalry certainly indicates it will be), I think penalties and turnovers will mark the winner of this affair. Cal cannot commit 14 penalties like last weekend and expect to win. On the other side, the Ducks cannot lose three fumbles like last weekend and expect to win. These teams aren't mirror images, but they are so many similarities, and I think tomorrow's going to be a lot of fun.
(do I even need to make a prediction? I want Cal to win. There, I said it.)
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